 &MODEL
 NLIST   =           1,
 NSTEP   =        2000,
 EPSI    =  1.0000000E-07,
 WGHT    =   1.000000    ,
 NOBS    =         120,
 NVAXZ   =           9,
 NVAX    =           4,
 NORDER  =           2,
 NVAZ    =           0,
 NLAMZ   =           0,
 NLAMY   =           1,
 NLAMX   =           3,
 NSCALE  =           1,
 NEXPY   =           0,
 NRES    =           0,
 NCOR    =           0,
 NCOV    =           0,
 VARNAME = BC4+A1A2P,
 NVARIANT        =           6
 /
 &AUTOCOR
 RHO     = 2*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 PI      = 2*0.990000000000000       ,
 NTPI    = 2*1,
 MATFILE = R1.in                                                                           R2.in                                     
                                       
 /
 &YBOXCOX
 VLY     =  0.000000000000000E+000,
 NTLY    =           1,
 NUMLXY  =           0
 /
 &XBOXCOX
 NUMX    =           1,           2,           3,           9, 46*0,
 NUMLX   = 2*1,           2,           3, 46*0,
 VLX     = 10*0.000000000000000E+000  ,
 NTLX    = 3*1, 7*0
 /
 &YXZDATA
 YXZFILE = CanadaNew.in                                                                    ,
 YXZFMT  = (5e15.5)                                                                        
 /

VARIABLE       MINIMUM         MEAN          MAXIMUM   NULL OBS.      SCALE
DEPENDENT
TOTFLOW     0.2577000D+04  0.1476588D+06  0.2736000D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
INDEPENDENT
POP         0.8591300D+05  0.5297039D+06  0.2802800D+07     0     0.1000000D-05
REVE        0.3698300D+04  0.4258776D+04  0.4808200D+04     0     0.1000000D-02
LANGFR      0.5600000D+01  0.7329333D+02  0.9990000D+02     0     0.1000000D+00
UTIL6       0.7057200D+00  0.1450638D+01  0.2416600D+01     0     0.1000000D+01
CONSTANT    0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01  0.1000000D+01     0     0.1000000D+01


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL6       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.3230D+03  0.4787D+04 -0.9621D+06 -0.3032D+07

REVE         0.3096D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1482D+02 -0.2978D+04 -0.9388D+04

LANGFR       0.2089D-03  0.6747D-01  0.1000D+01 -0.2010D+03 -0.6334D+03

UTIL6       -0.1039D-05 -0.3358D-03 -0.4976D-02  0.1000D+01  0.3152D+01

CONSTANT    -0.3298D-06 -0.1065D-03 -0.1579D-02  0.3173D+00  0.1000D+01


INITIAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                                                                DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)


POP           X1  0.1276043D+01  0.2133733D+00      5.9803320  0.4619463D-10  0.3557064D+00      1.2760434
                                                                              0.3707655D+00      1.2760434

REVE          X1  0.3313874D+01  0.2682668D+01      1.2352906 -0.7487306D-10  0.1148975D+03      3.3138744
                                                                              0.1038654D+00      3.3138744

LANGFR        X2  0.8452602D+00  0.2186194D+00      3.8663544 -0.9515037D-10  0.1702885D+04      0.8452602
                                                                              0.2168126D-01      0.8452602

UTIL6         X3 -0.3361954D+01  0.6577407D+00     -5.1113671 -0.1741532D-10 -0.3422095D+06     -3.3619541
                                                                             -0.3595567D+00     -3.3619541

CONSTANT      X0 -0.7305114D+01  0.3766982D+01     -1.9392488 -0.5190218D-10 -0.1078665D+07     -7.3051143
                                                                             -0.9762968D+00     -7.3051143

VAR(W)            0.1716782D+01  0.2216356D+00      7.7459667  0.0000000D+00

INITIAL VALUES
 
RHO1           0.0000000D+00
RHO2           0.0000000D+00
PI1            0.9900000D+00
PI2            0.9900000D+00
 
LAM(Y)         0.0000000D+00
LAM(X1)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X2)        0.0000000D+00
LAM(X3)        0.0000000D+00


LOG-LIKELIHOOD =  0.1853520D+03

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.3636
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.3415

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.2688
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.2433

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0000
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1336457D+00

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.7424322D-12
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.1716782D+01
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.2568110D+01   Upper Bound =  0.2568110D+01




initialization cards for control routine follow - -  id card - no. parameters , no. steps , step size 
minimization tolerance - starting values of parameters - relative uncertainties of parameters (error estimates) -  
and starting direction  (relative parameter increments for 1st step)
identification line
         8      2000   0.1E+01   0.1E-06
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.45951E+01  0.45951E+01  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00
  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01  0.10000E+01
  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00  0.00000E+00

first entry to fcn , parameters of current step follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.1853519937D+03  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00  0.00000D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry     9  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2631881661D+03  0.55862D+00  0.47872D+00  0.45951D+01  0.45951D+01 -0.14186D+00  0.11702D+00 -0.39890D-01  0.63413D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    11  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2644103000D+03  0.62284D+00  0.50137D+00  0.45952D+01  0.45952D+01 -0.94299D-01  0.13818D+00 -0.45814D-01  0.68717D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    19  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2668577687D+03  0.65042D+00  0.51763D+00  0.45953D+01  0.45952D+01 -0.69136D-01  0.14226D+00 -0.46366D-01  0.67565D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    23  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2700144864D+03  0.78155D+00  0.40517D+00  0.45960D+01  0.45956D+01 -0.10359D+00  0.29469D+00 -0.76052D-01  0.84562D-01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    26  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2707534331D+03  0.75620D+00  0.42532D+00  0.45972D+01  0.45961D+01 -0.72257D-01  0.38775D+00 -0.13899D+00  0.22962D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    29  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2714254555D+03  0.80141D+00  0.38241D+00  0.45994D+01  0.45970D+01 -0.56227D-01  0.35011D+00 -0.20214D+00  0.39828D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    33  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2717909519D+03  0.82212D+00  0.36935D+00  0.46638D+01  0.46325D+01 -0.47100D-01  0.34251D+00  0.58917D-01  0.79593D+00


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    36  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2723397446D+03  0.82852D+00  0.37547D+00  0.47974D+01  0.47066D+01 -0.40101D-01  0.27503D+00 -0.86769D-01  0.14322D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    39  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2728708114D+03  0.88132D+00  0.34333D+00  0.49905D+01  0.48217D+01 -0.55632D-01  0.28407D+00 -0.14535D+00  0.24146D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    41  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2728806361D+03  0.87594D+00  0.34742D+00  0.50357D+01  0.48572D+01 -0.57212D-01  0.29335D+00 -0.13283D+00  0.23940D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    44  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2728996278D+03  0.86992D+00  0.34839D+00  0.54006D+01  0.51442D+01 -0.58995D-01  0.29566D+00 -0.14434D+00  0.24483D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    46  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729152186D+03  0.85981D+00  0.35523D+00  0.57843D+01  0.54471D+01 -0.56990D-01  0.28870D+00 -0.15344D+00  0.24954D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    49  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729328152D+03  0.86950D+00  0.35000D+00  0.64297D+01  0.59628D+01 -0.55616D-01  0.29279D+00 -0.12843D+00  0.26103D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    52  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729559624D+03  0.86929D+00  0.35005D+00  0.74801D+01  0.68215D+01 -0.56319D-01  0.29396D+00 -0.14903D+00  0.23675D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    55  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729614042D+03  0.87242D+00  0.34854D+00  0.81680D+01  0.73772D+01 -0.57977D-01  0.28874D+00 -0.13631D+00  0.24183D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    58  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729649015D+03  0.87142D+00  0.34912D+00  0.93467D+01  0.83317D+01 -0.56511D-01  0.29315D+00 -0.14262D+00  0.24365D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    60  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729662094D+03  0.87053D+00  0.34942D+00  0.10202D+02  0.90263D+01 -0.57252D-01  0.29058D+00 -0.13876D+00  0.24130D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    62  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729667808D+03  0.87127D+00  0.34920D+00  0.11400D+02  0.99971D+01 -0.57227D-01  0.29109D+00 -0.14295D+00  0.24324D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    64  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729669968D+03  0.87097D+00  0.34923D+00  0.12237D+02  0.10677D+02 -0.57006D-01  0.29139D+00 -0.13899D+00  0.24191D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    67  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729670977D+03  0.87094D+00  0.34930D+00  0.13494D+02  0.11697D+02 -0.57254D-01  0.29086D+00 -0.14157D+00  0.24228D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    69  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671348D+03  0.87103D+00  0.34924D+00  0.14410D+02  0.12439D+02 -0.57063D-01  0.29130D+00 -0.13997D+00  0.24230D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    71  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671515D+03  0.87096D+00  0.34927D+00  0.15837D+02  0.13597D+02 -0.57175D-01  0.29104D+00 -0.14080D+00  0.24214D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    73  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671565D+03  0.87101D+00  0.34925D+00  0.16563D+02  0.14187D+02 -0.57106D-01  0.29120D+00 -0.14030D+00  0.24229D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    76  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671593D+03  0.87098D+00  0.34926D+00  0.18335D+02  0.15624D+02 -0.57143D-01  0.29111D+00 -0.14058D+00  0.24219D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    78  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671600D+03  0.87100D+00  0.34925D+00  0.18971D+02  0.16140D+02 -0.57119D-01  0.29117D+00 -0.14040D+00  0.24226D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    81  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671604D+03  0.87099D+00  0.34926D+00  0.20954D+02  0.17749D+02 -0.57131D-01  0.29114D+00 -0.14049D+00  0.24222D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    83  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671605D+03  0.87100D+00  0.34925D+00  0.21565D+02  0.18245D+02 -0.57122D-01  0.29116D+00 -0.14043D+00  0.24225D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    85  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671605D+03  0.87099D+00  0.34926D+00  0.24561D+02  0.20675D+02 -0.57129D-01  0.29115D+00 -0.14047D+00  0.24223D+01


new absolute minimum , parameters for fcn entry    87  follow - - f,x(i)
  -0.2729671605D+03  0.87100D+00  0.34925D+00  0.24043D+02  0.20255D+02 -0.57125D-01  0.29115D+00 -0.14044D+00  0.24224D+01



the function (fcn) has not improved by    0.10000D-06 after 3 steps which include a minimum - - -


therefore the run has been terminated
  -0.2729671605D+03  0.87100D+00  0.34925D+00  0.24043D+02  0.20255D+02 -0.57125D-01  0.29115D+00 -0.14044D+00  0.24224D+01



all numbers of last entry refer to final pt. of run


the lowest value of the function (fcn) was  -0.2729671605D+03 for entry   87 - - x(i) follows
  0.87100E+00  0.34925E+00  0.24043E+02  0.20255E+02 -0.57125E-01  0.29115E+00 -0.14044E+00  0.24224E+01



run statistics follow - -

 nfcn=   87 nst=   29


MRS of X(l) with respect to X(k) - at the sample means
===================================================================================================================================
        X(k) POP         REVE        LANGFR      UTIL6       CONSTANT  
X(l)
===================================================================================================================================

POP          0.1000D+01  0.8899D+01  0.2770D+04  0.3133D+06  0.2133D+07

REVE         0.1124D+00  0.1000D+01  0.3112D+03  0.3521D+05  0.2397D+06

LANGFR       0.3611D-03  0.3213D-02  0.1000D+01  0.1131D+03  0.7703D+03

UTIL6        0.3191D-05  0.2840D-04  0.8839D-02  0.1000D+01  0.6809D+01

CONSTANT     0.4687D-06  0.4171D-05  0.1298D-02  0.1469D+00  0.1000D+01


FINAL ESTIMATES

             LAM    PARAMETER      STD-ERROR        STUDENT-T      STUDENT-T    GRADIENT       DERIV.Y         ELAST.Y
                                   (CONDIT.)        (CONDIT.)      (CONDIT.)                   DERIV.E(Y)      ELAST.E(Y)
                                                    (PAR = 0)      (PAR = 1)

POP           X1  0.1552774D-01  0.2450275D-01      0.6337142                 0.5846261D-07  0.3964670D+00      1.4222660
                                 0.1158529D-02     13.4029823                                0.3830273D+00      1.2823631

REVE          X1  0.4525003D-02  0.8305758D-01      0.0544803                 0.1490512D-07  0.3528334D+01      0.1017642
                                 0.7844196D-01      0.0576860                                0.3932408D+01      0.0961600

LANGFR        X2  0.5047623D+00  0.1442027D+01      0.3500368                 0.1377532D-08  0.1098092D+04      0.5450595
                                 0.2012525D+00      2.5081049                                0.1900230D+04      0.5289677

UTIL6         X3  0.2511100D+00  0.2761420D+00      0.9093510                 0.5076918D-09  0.1242281D+06      1.2204486
                                 0.8334249D-01      3.0129885                                0.1267395D+06      1.2602230

CONSTANT      X0  0.2902210D+01  0.4154118D+01      0.6986345                 0.4175225D-09  0.8458243D+06      5.7282343
                                 0.2720943D+01      1.0666191                                0.9514861D+06      5.4139468

VAR(W)            0.8056169D-01  0.7239856D-01      1.1127526                 0.0000000D+00
                                 0.1265942D-01      6.3637715
 
RHO1      (E)     0.7018794D+00  0.9813321D-01      7.1523121                 0.3043880D-03
                                 0.8947524D-01      7.8443981
RHO2      (E)     0.3357147D+00  0.9421642D-01      3.5632290                 0.2211911D-03
                                 0.8830344D-01      3.8018298
PI1       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.4283813D+00      2.3343690      0.0000000  0.7221740D+01
                                 0.4080380D+00      2.4507519      0.0000000
PI2       (E)     0.1000000D+01  0.7345799D+00      1.3613223      0.0000000  0.4782628D+01
                                 0.6936042D+00      1.4417444      0.0000000
 
LAM(Y)    (E)    -0.5712462D-01  0.4164626D-01     -1.3716627    -25.3834232  0.2000892D-03
LAM(X1)   (E)     0.2911549D+00  0.1256880D+00      2.3164888     -5.6397176  0.5293358D-04
LAM(X2)   (E)    -0.1404429D+00  0.7939322D+00     -0.1768953     -1.4364487  0.1692699D-04
LAM(X3)   (E)     0.2422417D+01  0.1693840D+01      1.4301329      0.8397584  0.4719016D-05


LOG-LIKELIHOOD = -0.1384894D+04

NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS              =            120

PEARSON-R2(E) (unadjusted)          =         0.6548
PEARSON-R2(E) (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.6161

PSEUDO-R2(L)  (unadjusted)          =         0.9826
PSEUDO-R2(L)  (adjusted for D.F.)   =         0.9806

PROBABILITY of Y to be at the limit =         0.0015
MEAN VALUE of E(Y)                  =  0.1623590D+06

MEAN of residual W                  = -0.3315961D-01
VARIANCE of residual W              =  0.8056169D-01
95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL for residual W
Lower Bound = -0.5894741D+00   Upper Bound =  0.5231549D+00


CPU TIME:      3.55 sec
